Polls · Texas Senate
Texas Public Opinion Research , 18 October 2026
Texas Public Opinion Research has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 4 points in Texas Senate, 51% to 47%. Since its previous poll (22 September 2026): Ken Paxton +3 (44 → 47), James Talarico +2 (49 → 51).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 15 October 2026 – 18 October 2026 |
| Published | 23 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 969 (likely voters) |
| Method | online |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
TPOR Substack post (shares with leaners)
Main
 James Talarico D |
51 | |
 Ken Paxton R |
47 |
Margin on the decided vote: D+4.1; after our adjustments D+5.7, which includes a move of 2.5 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 17 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: James Talarico 51% against 48%.
Texas Public Opinion Research's previous poll of this race, 22 September 2026 →
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)