Polls · Texas Senate
YouGov , 16 October 2026
YouGov has James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 2 points in Texas Senate, 51% to 49%. Since its previous poll (5 October 2026): Ken Paxton +5 (44 → 49), James Talarico +1 (50 → 51).
| Race | Texas Senate |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 8 October 2026 – 16 October 2026 |
| Stage | General election |
| Sample | 1,492 (likely voters) |
| Paid for by | YouGov |
| Method | online opt-in panel; sample matched to a frame drawn from the 2019 American Community Survey |
| Release | release |
| In our average | Yes |
Main
 James Talarico D |
51 | |
 Ken Paxton R |
49 |
Margin on the decided vote: D+2.0; after our adjustments D+3.2, which includes a move of 2.6 points to the Democrats with the national trend since the poll (↻).
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 16 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Ken Paxton 49% against 45.6%; James Talarico 51% against 48%.
Photo credits
- James Talarico: Photo: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:James_Talarico_Press_Conference_(cropped).jpg)
- Ken Paxton: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K_Paxton.jpg)