FdI leads every poll, but the centre-left still wins the Camera in our projection
Fratelli d'Italia is 7.4 points ahead of the PD in our average. Because Vannacci's party stands apart from the centre-right, the centre-left coalition wins 223 of 400 seats.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Eight polls published in the last fortnight all have Fratelli d'Italia first, between 26.6 and 29 per cent. SWG (2 November) has it on 29.0, the PD on 20.6 and the Five Star Movement on 12.6. Ipsos (29 October) has FdI lower, on 26.7, and Five Star higher, on 14.9. BiDiMedia (30 October) has FdI on 26.6 and the PD on 20.6.
In our average FdI is on 27.7 per cent, 7.4 points ahead of the PD.
Our projection
The party picture and the coalition picture point different ways. FdI is comfortably the largest party, but the next election will be fought by coalitions. In our average the centre-left (PD, Five Star, AVS, Italia Viva, +Europa and smaller lists) has 43.6 per cent. The centre-right without Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale has less.
On those figures the centre-left would win an outright majority in the Camera: 223 of the 400 seats. The centre-right would win 143, Futuro Nazionale 24 and Azione 10. The centre-left wins a majority in 60 per cent of our simulations.
Where the polls have missed
Italian polls have missed in both directions. A miss like 2013 changes little: the centre-left gets 224. A miss like 2006 or 2018, when the right did better than its polls, turns the result over: the centre-right wins 220 to 223 seats and the majority.
That is the main risk to the projection. The coalitions are close to level in the vote, so a few points either way decide which side passes the threshold for the majority bonus.
Futuro Nazionale
Vannacci's party is now ahead of the Lega in every one of the last eight polls: 7.9 to 5.6 at Ipsos, 7.1 to 5.6 at Termometro Politico, 5.8 to 5.5 at SWG. Whether it joins the centre-right before the election decides how big that coalition is.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
Elsewhere on Polling Forecast
Victoria votes in 23 days, and the Coalition is close to a majority
Victoria's state election is on 28 November. Our projection gives the Coalition 48 of the 88 seats, three more than a majority; One Nation's vote decides how many it really wins.
Is the NDP on 8 per cent or 14? It depends which pollster you ask
Liaison and Nanos have the NDP on 13.6 to 14 per cent; Abacus and Léger on 8 to 9. At 8 the party would hold a handful of seats; at 14 it starts to win back some it lost in 2025.
Only a repeat of 2023's polling miss would cost the right its majority
PiS and the two Konfederacjas have 240 seats in our projection. If the polls miss like 2023, they fall to 226 and the governing coalition, with the PSL back in the Sejm, reaches 234.