Vannacci's party has overtaken the Lega, and most of its voters came from the right
Futuro Nazionale is ahead of the Lega in all of the last eight polls. An Ipsos study found 31 per cent of its voters had come from FdI and 25 per cent from the Lega.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Roberto Vannacci was elected to the European Parliament for the Lega in 2024. His own party, Futuro Nazionale, now polls ahead of the Lega.
In the last eight polls Futuro Nazionale is on 5.8 to 7.9 per cent and the Lega on 5.0 to 6.4. Futuro Nazionale is ahead in all of them, though at SWG (2 November) only by 5.8 to 5.5, a statistical tie.
Where its voters came from
Ipsos analysed about 20,000 interviews taken between February and June. Of those who now back Futuro Nazionale, 31 per cent had voted Fratelli d'Italia and 25 per cent the Lega. More than a third had not voted at the 2024 European elections.
So the party has drawn mainly on the centre-right's own voters, and on people who had stopped voting. That matters for how the next election is fought.
Inside the coalition or outside it
In our projection Futuro Nazionale stands on its own and wins 24 seats. Without it the centre-right is behind the centre-left, which wins a majority of 223 seats.
Lab21 put both coalitions on 43.7 per cent in late October, with Futuro Nazionale counted separately. In September Ipsos tested a centre-right that included it: that coalition reached 45.7 per cent against 45.2 for the progressive side.
That is the arithmetic both sides are watching. With Futuro Nazionale inside, the centre-right is level with the centre-left or ahead. With it outside, the centre-right is behind, and the votes Futuro Nazionale won from FdI and the Lega count for neither coalition's bonus.
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