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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Madrid

Nuevo Baztán: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Nuevo Baztán (Madrid, 6,760 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP+1
5 councillors (2023: 4) · 28.8% of the vote (2023: 30.1%) Majority 1%
VOX+1
3 councillors (2023: 2) · 21.2% of the vote (2023: 13.8%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 16.5% of the vote (2023: 19.9%) Majority 0%
F±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 11.0% of the vote (2023: 10.7%) Majority 0%
UCIN±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.4% of the vote (2023: 9.2%) Majority 0%
PODEMOS-IU-AV−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 8.9% of the vote (2023: 12.1%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 99% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Nuevo Baztán

Nuevo Baztán is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 6,760 inhabitants, the 73rd largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 30.1% of the vote and 4 seats; PSOE was second with 3. 64% of the 5,073 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 5 of 13.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 30.1% → 28.8% 4 → 5 councillors
  2. VOXVox 13.8% → 21.2% 2 → 3 councillors
  3. PSOEPSOE 19.9% → 16.5% 3 → 2 councillors
  4. FLocal lists 10.7% → 11.0% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. UCINLocal lists 9.2% → 9.4% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PODEMOS-IU-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 12.1% → 8.9% 2 → 1 councillors
  7. CSCiudadanos 2.4% → 2.4% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,247 valid votes including 59 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Nuevo Baztán in size, in Madrid

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