Ipsos puts PiS on 26 as the right's majority chance edges down to 90 per cent
Ipsos's poll for TVP Info has KO 8 points ahead, with PiS well above where other pollsters have it. Our projection gives the parties of the right a majority in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
One Sejm poll has joined our figures since our last round-up. Ipsos for TVP Info's 19:30 news, with fieldwork on 21 and 22 October, had Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition on 34 and PiS on 26, a lead of 8 points. Konfederacja had 10, Grzegorz Braun's KKP 8, Lewica 6 and the PSL 5. Razem and Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus had 4 each, and Polska 2050 1. It was Ipsos's first poll since February, when it had KO on 29 and Konfederacja on 14.
PiS's 26 is the figure that stands out. The four other polls with fieldwork in the same week had PiS on a median of 20.6 and KO on 30.2.
Our projection
The Ipsos poll pulled the average towards PiS, up 1.0 point in a week to 22.5, while KO fell 1.0 to 33.2. On those figures KO wins 191 seats, unchanged, PiS 132 (up 2), Konfederacja 64, KKP 44 (down 2), Lewica 20 (up 1) and Rozwój Plus 9 (down 1).
The governing parties have 211 seats, 20 short of a majority, and keep one in 8 per cent of our simulations, up from 7. A majority for the parties of the right comes up in 90 per cent, down from 92. Rozwój Plus clears the 5 per cent threshold in 55 per cent of our simulations; the PSL, on 3.6, in 3 per cent.
The poll check
Ipsos usually has KO lower than other pollsters do. Allowing for that, its 8-point KO lead becomes about 10, with KO nearer 36.
The context
The fight over the abortion law goes on. The Sejm has passed two bills easing it, and President Karol Nawrocki is expected to veto them. In an SW Research poll for Onet published on 30 October, 60.8 per cent said the president should sign the bills, 12.5 per cent that he should veto them and 9.6 per cent that he should send them to the Constitutional Tribunal. Overturning a veto takes 276 of the 460 Sejm votes, and the governing parties reach that in none of our simulations.
The next election is due by 11 November 2027.
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