Poland Parliamentary electionby 11 Nov 2027in 374 days Government majority 7% Right-wing majority 91% Calendar Track record Research
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Poland · Votes per seat

A seat costs Rozwój Plus 3.3 times as many votes as PiS

Poland elects its 460 seats by D'Hondt in each constituency. On our projection, 63 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give. Razem (3.9%) and PSL (3.6%) would win no seats at all.

Seats against the vote

  1. KO33.2% of the vote 191 seats; 156 in proportion (+35) 0.82 × the average votes per seat
  2. PiS22.5% of the vote 132 seats; 106 in proportion (+26) 0.80 × the average votes per seat
  3. Konfederacja13.1% of the vote 64 seats; 62 in proportion (+2) 0.97 × the average votes per seat
  4. KKP9.7% of the vote 44 seats; 46 in proportion (-2) 1.04 × the average votes per seat
  5. Lewica6.6% of the vote 20 seats; 31 in proportion (-11) 1.56 × the average votes per seat
  6. Rozwój Plus5.1% of the vote 9 seats; 24 in proportion (-15) 2.65 × the average votes per seat
  7. Razem3.9% of the vote 0 seats; 18 in proportion (-18) no seats
  8. PSL3.6% of the vote 0 seats; 17 in proportion (-17) no seats

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →