Vannacci is fading, and that is the best news Meloni has had since the new electoral law
The centre-left still leads the centre-right by under a point in SWG's poll, but Forza Italia has passed Roberto Vannacci's party. Every point he loses brings the right closer to the threshold that triggers a seventy-seat bonus.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 11 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
SWG's latest poll for La7, taken on 4-9 November, has the centre-left coalition on 44.9% and the centre-right on 44.0%, a gap of under a point. Fratelli d'Italia is the largest party on 28.9%, the Partito Democratico 20.8%, the Movimento 5 Stelle 12.6%, Forza Italia 7.3%, Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra 6.2%, the Lega 5.7% and Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale 5.5% (StrettoWeb).
The detail that matters is at the bottom of that list. Futuro Nazionale had the biggest fall of the week, three tenths, and Forza Italia is now ahead of it. Not long ago Vannacci's party was polling 6% to 7%.
Why Vannacci decides the bonus
Italy's new electoral law, passed on 8 October, gives 70 extra deputies and 35 extra senators to a coalition that wins at least 42% in both chambers. If nobody does, the seats are shared out proportionally.
Both coalitions are above 42% today, so the bonus goes to whichever comes first. The centre-left has been ahead because Vannacci, who left the Lega to found his own party, is outside the centre-right coalition. His voters are mostly former right-wing voters. Every point he loses that goes back to Fratelli d'Italia or the Lega moves the centre-right a point closer to first place.
That is why the centre-right's own strategists watch him more than they watch Elly Schlein. Youtrend's estimates for Sky TG24 suggest the centre-right falls short without Vannacci's votes. Fratelli d'Italia's people point to the 2024 European elections, when Giorgia Meloni's late campaign added about four points to what the polls had shown (Avvenire). Four points is more than the gap between the coalitions.
On our numbers the centre-left would win 224 seats in the Camera and a majority in 63% of our simulations. It is a narrow favourite in a race that could flip on a single point.
The budget and the street
Meloni has presented a budget of about €26 billion, built around young people: a 1% flat tax on rent for landlords who let at controlled rents to tenants under 36, a 1% tax on 2027 pay rises for private-sector workers born after 1997 and earning up to €28,000, a €100 state savings account for every newborn, and a fourth month of parental leave at 80% of pay (L'Espresso).
The fight is over what it cuts: 4,925 teaching posts and 2,049 school support staff, by not replacing retirements as pupil numbers fall. Unions including the CISL oppose it, and the PD's Antonio Misiani called the package "misure spot". Protests against the cost of living and rearmament were held in about 70 cities; the interior ministry counted 255,000 people, the USB union a million.
When Italy votes
That is still open. The election is due by December 2027, and Meloni has told allies she will not force an early vote. But Fratelli d'Italia has floated a spring election alongside the municipal votes in May, and a budget aimed squarely at younger voters looks like the start of a campaign. The Lega is said to be open to an early vote; Forza Italia's Antonio Tajani wants the full term.
If Futuro Nazionale keeps sliding, expect the talk of May to get louder.
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