Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Cascante: UPN would keep its majority

Cascante (Navarra, 3,950 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

UPN±0
7 councillors (2023: 7) · 59.7% of the vote (2023: 57.2%) Majority 99%
PSN-PSOE−1
2 councillors (2023: 3) · 22.5% of the vote (2023: 25.7%) Majority 0%
CIC+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 15.7% of the vote (2023: 15.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 1% of 300 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Cascante

Cascante is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 3,950 inhabitants, the 30th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 UPN came first with 57.2% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PSN-PSOE was second with 3. 70% of the 2,809 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps UPN on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 99% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. UPNUPN 57.2% → 59.7% 7 → 7 councillors
  2. PSN-PSOEPSOE 25.7% → 22.5% 3 → 2 councillors
  3. CICLocal lists 15.0% → 15.7% 1 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,966 valid votes including 41 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Cascante in size, in Navarra

Every municipality in Navarra → · All of Spain →