Cascante: UPN would keep its majority
Cascante (Navarra, 3,950 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 99%UPN majority
- 1,966valid votes in 2023 (70% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 1% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Cascante
Cascante is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 3,950 inhabitants, the 30th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 UPN came first with 57.2% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PSN-PSOE was second with 3. 70% of the 2,809 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps UPN on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 99% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- UPNUPN 57.2% → 59.7% 7 → 7 councillors
- PSN-PSOEPSOE 25.7% → 22.5% 3 → 2 councillors
- CICLocal lists 15.0% → 15.7% 1 → 2 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,966 valid votes including 41 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.