El Tiemblo: no list would have a majority, XAV largest
El Tiemblo (Ávila, 4,373 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- over 99%no list with a majority
- 2,085valid votes in 2023 (63% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About El Tiemblo
El Tiemblo is a municipality in the province of Ávila with 4,373 inhabitants, the 7th largest of its 248 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 XAV came first with 26.1% of the vote and 3 seats; PNTAV was second with 3. 63.4% of the 3,289 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: XAV would be largest on 3 of 11.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- XAVLocal lists 26.1% → 26.1% 3 → 3 councillors
- PNTAVLocal lists 21.5% → 21.5% 3 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 14.3% → 21.4% 2 → 2 councillors
- PPPP 19.9% → 18.3% 2 → 2 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 12.4% → 9.2% 1 → 1 councillors
- IU-PODEMOSSumar, Podemos and allies 4.5% → 2.2% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,085 valid votes including 26 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.