Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Arenas de San Pedro: PP would keep its majority

Arenas de San Pedro (Ávila, 6,465 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP+1
9 councillors (2023: 8) · 65.5% of the vote (2023: 60.5%) Majority over 99%
PSOE±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 26.4% of the vote (2023: 27.5%) Majority 0%
I.U.−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.8% of the vote (2023: 7.8%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.

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About Arenas de San Pedro

Arenas de San Pedro is a municipality in the province of Ávila with 6,465 inhabitants, the 3rd largest of its 248 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 60.5% of the vote and 8 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 4. 64.9% of the 5,345 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 9 seats, a majority, which it holds in 100% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 60.5% → 65.5% 8 → 9 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 27.5% → 26.4% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 7.8% → 5.8% 1 → 0 councillors
  4. XAVLocal lists 1.0% → 1.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. PODEMOS-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 2.2% → 0.3% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,468 valid votes including 32 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Arenas de San Pedro in size, in Ávila

Every municipality in Ávila → · All of Spain →