One pollster has the Union ahead of the AfD. Even if it is right, the AfD may still finish first
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen put the CDU/CSU 3 points ahead of the AfD in October, while every other institute has the AfD 4 to 11 points clear. A 2013 or 2021-style polling miss would close much of the gap.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Most German pollsters agree that the AfD is ahead. In October, INSA, Verian, GMS, pollytix, YouGov and Allensbach all had it 4 to 11 points clear of the CDU/CSU. One institute disagrees. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, for ZDF's Politbarometer, had the Union on 26 per cent and the AfD on 23 in its poll of 22 October.
Why the difference
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen does not publish raw answers. It reports a "projection" that adjusts them for longer-term loyalties and past voting. That method tends to damp sudden swings, so its figures can sit apart from the other institutes' for weeks.
Neither approach is wrong in itself. What matters is which has been closer at elections, and the record cuts both ways. At federal elections since 2002 the final polls have overstated the Union more often than not: by about 6 points in 2005 and about 4 in 2017. In 2013 and 2021 they had it too low.
What the misses would do
We take the polls as published, without a correction, because German misses have not run consistently in one direction. But we replay each past miss on today's polls:
- Like 2013 or 2021, when the Union beat its polls: the Union rises to 161 or 162 seats, the AfD stays on about 200. The AfD is still largest.
- Like 2025: the AfD 196, the Union 139, the SPD 107.
- Like 2005, when the polls overstated the Union: the Union falls to 98 seats.
So even a favourable miss for the Union leaves the AfD the largest party. For the Union to come first, the true gap would have to be as narrow as Forschungsgruppe Wahlen measures it, or narrower.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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