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Umfragen bewegen → Alle Werkzeuge →Where the polls stood 2 years and 5 months before each of the last three general elections, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: SPD in 2021, +8.9 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
CDU/CSU led by 7.7. CDU/CSU won the vote by 7.7 on 23 February.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 27.4 | 28.5 | +1.1 |
| AfD | 14.2 | 20.8 | +6.6 |
| Greens | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 |
| SPD | 18.5 | 16.4 | −2.1 |
| Linke | 5.1 | 8.8 | +3.7 |
| FDP | 7.0 | 4.3 | −2.7 |
CDU/CSU led by 9.9. SPD won the vote instead, by 1.7.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 28.6 | 24.1 | −4.5 |
| SPD | 16.8 | 25.7 | +8.9 |
| Greens | 18.7 | 14.8 | −4.0 |
| AfD | 13.1 | 10.3 | −2.8 |
| FDP | 8.5 | 11.5 | +3.0 |
| Linke | 8.8 | 4.9 | −3.9 |
CDU/CSU led by 16.3. CDU/CSU won the vote by 12.4 on 24 September.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 40.9 | 32.9 | −8.0 |
| SPD | 24.6 | 20.5 | −4.1 |
| AfD | 5.4 | 12.6 | +7.2 |
| FDP | 4.1 | 10.8 | +6.7 |
| Greens | 10.3 | 8.9 | −1.4 |
| Linke | 9.1 | 9.2 | +0.1 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2025 | As in 2021 | As in 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 27.6 | 34.2 | 24.8 | 34.8 |
| CDU/CSU | 20.6 | 21.7 | 16.1 | 12.6 |
| Greens | 14.9 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| SPD | 13.6 | 11.5 | 22.5 | 9.5 |
| Linke | 10.6 | 14.3 | 6.7 | 10.7 |
| FDP | 4.0 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 10.7 |
| BSW | 3.2 |
AfD stays ahead in every one. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Germany's figures are second votes, the Union as CDU and CSU together.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2017 German federal election, Opinion polling for the 2021 German federal election, Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
