Germany · Seats changing hands
73 seats change hands since 2025, AfD up 46
Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2025. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.
- 73seats change hands
- +46AfD, net
- +19Greens, net
- −2SPD, net
Who takes seats from whom
- AfDfrom CDU/CSU 38 seats
- Greensfrom CDU/CSU 17 seats
- SPDfrom CDU/CSU 8 seats
- AfDfrom SPD 8 seats
- Greensfrom SPD 2 seats
Every seat
- LandshutBY AfD from CDU/CSU 29% chance
- Rottal-InnBY AfD from CDU/CSU 35% chance
- Düsseldorf IINW Greens from CDU/CSU 37% chance
- Augsburg-StadtBY AfD from CDU/CSU 38% chance
- Solingen – Remscheid – Wuppertal IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 40% chance
- St. WendelSL AfD from CDU/CSU 48% chance
- Hamburg-MitteHH Greens from SPD 50% chance
- GießenHE AfD from CDU/CSU 50% chance
- Cuxhaven – Stade IINI SPD from CDU/CSU 51% chance
- NeuwiedRP AfD from CDU/CSU 52% chance
- Steinburg – Dithmarschen SüdSH AfD from CDU/CSU 52% chance
- Göttingen INI SPD from CDU/CSU 53% chance
- GöppingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 53% chance
- Salzgitter – WolfenbüttelNI AfD from SPD 54% chance
- Bottrop – Recklinghausen IIINW AfD from CDU/CSU 55% chance
- Recklinghausen IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 57% chance
- Rhein-NeckarBW AfD from CDU/CSU 57% chance
- MainzRP Greens from CDU/CSU 58% chance
- Bruchsal – SchwetzingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 59% chance
- Siegen-WittgensteinNW AfD from CDU/CSU 60% chance
- Köln INW Greens from SPD 61% chance
- HanauHE AfD from CDU/CSU 62% chance
- Stuttgart IIBW Greens from CDU/CSU 63% chance
- Backnang – Schwäbisch GmündBW AfD from CDU/CSU 64% chance
- Herford – Minden-Lübbecke IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 65% chance
- Berlin-ReinickendorfBE AfD from CDU/CSU 68% chance
- Hamburg-NordHH Greens from CDU/CSU 70% chance
- BonnNW Greens from CDU/CSU 70% chance
- Berlin-Spandau – Charlottenburg NordBE AfD from SPD 70% chance
- Schwäbisch Hall – HohenloheBW AfD from CDU/CSU 70% chance
- Delmenhorst – Wesermarsch – Oldenburg-LandNI AfD from CDU/CSU 71% chance
- Groß-GerauHE SPD from CDU/CSU 71% chance
- Krefeld II – Wesel IINW SPD from CDU/CSU 72% chance
- WaldeckHE AfD from CDU/CSU 72% chance
- Berlin-Steglitz-ZehlendorfBE Greens from CDU/CSU 73% chance
- Nürnberg-NordBY Greens from CDU/CSU 74% chance
- Essen IINW AfD from SPD 74% chance
- HomburgSL AfD from SPD 75% chance
- SaarlouisSL AfD from CDU/CSU 75% chance
- Rottweil – TuttlingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 76% chance
- Flensburg – SchleswigSH Greens from CDU/CSU 76% chance
- KreuznachRP AfD from CDU/CSU 76% chance
- München-NordBY Greens from CDU/CSU 76% chance
- Helmstedt – WolfsburgNI AfD from CDU/CSU 77% chance
- Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis IINW SPD from CDU/CSU 77% chance
- Lahn-DillHE AfD from CDU/CSU 78% chance
- Duisburg IINW AfD from SPD 78% chance
- Zollernalb – SigmaringenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 80% chance
- Frankfurt am Main IHE SPD from CDU/CSU 80% chance
- Stadt OsnabrückNI SPD from CDU/CSU 81% chance
- Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-RotenburgHE AfD from CDU/CSU 81% chance
- TübingenBW Greens from CDU/CSU 81% chance
- MannheimBW AfD from CDU/CSU 83% chance
- PforzheimBW AfD from CDU/CSU 83% chance
- TrierRP SPD from CDU/CSU 85% chance
- Minden-Lübbecke INW AfD from CDU/CSU 85% chance
- HeilbronnBW AfD from CDU/CSU 86% chance
- GelsenkirchenNW AfD from SPD 86% chance
- DarmstadtHE Greens from CDU/CSU 88% chance
- Lippe INW AfD from CDU/CSU 88% chance
- München-West/MitteBY Greens from CDU/CSU 88% chance
- Main-Kinzig – Wetterau II – SchottenHE AfD from CDU/CSU 89% chance
- Schwalm-EderHE AfD from CDU/CSU 91% chance
- Hagen – Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis INW AfD from CDU/CSU 91% chance
- PirmasensRP AfD from CDU/CSU 93% chance
- Aachen INW Greens from CDU/CSU 93% chance
- Berlin-Charlottenburg-WilmersdorfBE Greens from CDU/CSU 97% chance
- Ludwigshafen/FrankenthalRP AfD from CDU/CSU 97% chance
- KaiserslauternRP AfD from SPD 98% chance
- Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming IIBB AfD from SPD 98% chance
- HeidelbergBW Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance
- Frankfurt am Main IIHE Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance
- München-SüdBY Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance
Nothing matches.