Germany · changelog
What moved in the forecast, day by day
Every day our Germany forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.
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31 OctSaturday
- AfD: 199 seats (−1)
- CDU/CSU: 149 seats (+1)
- Greens: 107 seats (+1)
- Linke: 76 seats (−1)
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27 OctTuesday
- AfD: 200 seats (+12)
- CDU/CSU: 148 seats (+1)
- Greens: 106 seats (+1)
- SPD: 98 seats (−11)
- Linke: 77 seats (−3)
- AfD: 27.8% of the vote (+1.6)
- SPD: 13.6% of the vote (−1.6)
- Linke: 10.6% of the vote (−0.5)
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24 OctSaturday
- AfD: 188 seats (+2)
- CDU/CSU: 147 seats (+1)
- SPD: 109 seats (−3)
- Greens: 105 seats (+1)
- Linke: 80 seats (−1)
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23 OctFriday
- AfD: 186 seats (−5)
- CDU/CSU: 146 seats (+4)
- SPD: 112 seats (+3)
- Greens: 104 seats (−2)
- AfD: 25.9% of the vote (−0.7)
- CDU/CSU: 20.4% of the vote (+0.6)
- Greens: 14.4% of the vote (−0.4)
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22 OctThursday
- AfD: 191 seats (+1)
- CDU/CSU: 142 seats (+2)
- SPD: 109 seats (−1)
- Greens: 106 seats (−1)
- Linke: 81 seats (−1)
- CDU/CSU: 19.8% of the vote (+0.4)
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21 OctWednesday
- AfD: 190 seats (+1)
- Greens: 107 seats (−1)
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20 OctTuesday
- AfD: 189 seats (+4)
- CDU/CSU: 140 seats (−1)
- SPD: 110 seats (−2)
- Greens: 108 seats (+1)
- Linke: 82 seats (−2)
- AfD: 26.1% of the vote (+0.5)
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19 OctMonday
- AfD: 185 seats (+3)
- SPD: 112 seats (−2)
- Greens: 107 seats (+1)
- Linke: 84 seats (−2)
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13 OctTuesday
- CDU/CSU: 141 seats (−1)
- Linke: 86 seats (+1)
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11 OctSunday
- AfD: 182 seats (−4)
- CDU/CSU: 142 seats (−1)
- SPD: 114 seats (+3)
- Greens: 106 seats (+1)
- Linke: 85 seats (+1)
- AfD: 25.3% of the vote (−0.6)
- BSW: 3.0% of the vote (−0.6)
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8 OctThursday
- AfD: 186 seats (−17)
- CDU/CSU: 143 seats (+1)
- SPD: 111 seats (+15)
- Greens: 105 seats (−3)
- Linke: 84 seats (+4)
- AfD: 25.9% of the vote (−2.2)
- SPD: 15.4% of the vote (+2.2)
- Linke: 11.7% of the vote (+0.6)
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7 OctWednesday
- AfD: 203 seats (−1)
- Greens: 108 seats (+1)
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6 OctTuesday
- AfD: 204 seats (+1)
- CDU/CSU: 142 seats (−2)
- SPD: 96 seats (+1)
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2 OctFriday
- AfD: 203 seats (−1)
- CDU/CSU: 144 seats (+1)
- Greens: 107 seats (+1)
- SPD: 95 seats (−1)
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30 SepWednesday
- AfD: 204 seats (−1)
- CDU/CSU: 143 seats (−2)
- Greens: 106 seats (−1)
- SPD: 96 seats (+3)
- Linke: 80 seats (+1)
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29 SepTuesday
- AfD: 205 seats (+1)
- CDU/CSU: 145 seats (+1)
- SPD: 93 seats (−1)
- Linke: 79 seats (−1)
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28 SepMonday · rebuilt
- UNION: 144 seats (−1)
- SPD: 94 seats (+1)
- GRUENE: 107 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 80 seats (−1)
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26 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- AFD: 204 seats (−1)
- LINKE: 81 seats (+1)
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25 SepFriday · rebuilt
- AFD: 205 seats (+2)
- GRUENE: 106 seats (−1)
- LINKE: 80 seats (−1)
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22 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- UNION: 145 seats (−1)
- AFD: 203 seats (+1)
- SPD: 93 seats (+2)
- GRUENE: 107 seats (−1)
- LINKE: 81 seats (−1)
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16 SepWednesday · rebuilt
- UNION: 146 seats (+3)
- AFD: 202 seats (−2)
- GRUENE: 108 seats (−1)
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15 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- UNION: 143 seats (−2)
- GRUENE: 109 seats (+2)
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14 SepMonday · rebuilt
- UNION: 145 seats (−2)
- AFD: 204 seats (+3)
- SPD: 91 seats (−1)
- GRUENE: 107 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 82 seats (−1)
- UNION: 20.1% of the vote (−0.4)
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12 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- UNION: 147 seats (−1)
- SPD: 92 seats (+2)
- LINKE: 83 seats (−1)
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8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- UNION: 148 seats (+1)
- AFD: 201 seats (+1)
- SPD: 90 seats (−1)
- LINKE: 84 seats (−1)
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7 SepMonday · rebuilt
- UNION: 147 seats (−3)
- GRUENE: 106 seats (+2)
- LINKE: 85 seats (+1)
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31 AugMonday · rebuilt
- AFD: 200 seats (−2)
- SPD: 91 seats (−1)
- GRUENE: 104 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 84 seats (+2)
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29 AugSaturday · rebuilt
- AFD: 202 seats (+1)
- SPD: 92 seats (+1)
- GRUENE: 103 seats (−1)
- LINKE: 82 seats (−1)
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26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
- UNION: 150 seats (−1)
- AFD: 201 seats (−1)
- GRUENE: 104 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 83 seats (+1)
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24 AugMonday · rebuilt
- AFD: 202 seats (+1)
- SPD: 91 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 82 seats (−2)
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21 AugFriday · rebuilt
- GRUENE: 103 seats (+1)
- LINKE: 84 seats (−1)
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20 AugThursday · rebuilt
- UNION: 151 seats (−1)
- AFD: 201 seats (+1)