Deutschland Nächste Wahlspätestens 25 März 2029in 875 Tagen CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens 97% Kalender Umfragebilanz Forschung
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Germany · changelog

What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our Germany forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 31 OctSaturday
    • AfD: 199 seats (−1)
    • CDU/CSU: 149 seats (+1)
    • Greens: 107 seats (+1)
    • Linke: 76 seats (−1)
  2. 27 OctTuesday
    • AfD: 200 seats (+12)
    • CDU/CSU: 148 seats (+1)
    • Greens: 106 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 98 seats (−11)
    • Linke: 77 seats (−3)
    • AfD: 27.8% of the vote (+1.6)
    • SPD: 13.6% of the vote (−1.6)
    • Linke: 10.6% of the vote (−0.5)
  3. 24 OctSaturday
    • AfD: 188 seats (+2)
    • CDU/CSU: 147 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 109 seats (−3)
    • Greens: 105 seats (+1)
    • Linke: 80 seats (−1)
  4. 23 OctFriday
    • AfD: 186 seats (−5)
    • CDU/CSU: 146 seats (+4)
    • SPD: 112 seats (+3)
    • Greens: 104 seats (−2)
    • AfD: 25.9% of the vote (−0.7)
    • CDU/CSU: 20.4% of the vote (+0.6)
    • Greens: 14.4% of the vote (−0.4)
  5. 22 OctThursday
    • AfD: 191 seats (+1)
    • CDU/CSU: 142 seats (+2)
    • SPD: 109 seats (−1)
    • Greens: 106 seats (−1)
    • Linke: 81 seats (−1)
    • CDU/CSU: 19.8% of the vote (+0.4)
  6. 21 OctWednesday
    • AfD: 190 seats (+1)
    • Greens: 107 seats (−1)
  7. 20 OctTuesday
    • AfD: 189 seats (+4)
    • CDU/CSU: 140 seats (−1)
    • SPD: 110 seats (−2)
    • Greens: 108 seats (+1)
    • Linke: 82 seats (−2)
    • AfD: 26.1% of the vote (+0.5)
  8. 19 OctMonday
    • AfD: 185 seats (+3)
    • SPD: 112 seats (−2)
    • Greens: 107 seats (+1)
    • Linke: 84 seats (−2)
  9. 13 OctTuesday
    • CDU/CSU: 141 seats (−1)
    • Linke: 86 seats (+1)
  10. 11 OctSunday
    • AfD: 182 seats (−4)
    • CDU/CSU: 142 seats (−1)
    • SPD: 114 seats (+3)
    • Greens: 106 seats (+1)
    • Linke: 85 seats (+1)
    • AfD: 25.3% of the vote (−0.6)
    • BSW: 3.0% of the vote (−0.6)
  11. 8 OctThursday
    • AfD: 186 seats (−17)
    • CDU/CSU: 143 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 111 seats (+15)
    • Greens: 105 seats (−3)
    • Linke: 84 seats (+4)
    • AfD: 25.9% of the vote (−2.2)
    • SPD: 15.4% of the vote (+2.2)
    • Linke: 11.7% of the vote (+0.6)
  12. 7 OctWednesday
    • AfD: 203 seats (−1)
    • Greens: 108 seats (+1)
  13. 6 OctTuesday
    • AfD: 204 seats (+1)
    • CDU/CSU: 142 seats (−2)
    • SPD: 96 seats (+1)
  14. 2 OctFriday
    • AfD: 203 seats (−1)
    • CDU/CSU: 144 seats (+1)
    • Greens: 107 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 95 seats (−1)
  15. 30 SepWednesday
    • AfD: 204 seats (−1)
    • CDU/CSU: 143 seats (−2)
    • Greens: 106 seats (−1)
    • SPD: 96 seats (+3)
    • Linke: 80 seats (+1)
  16. 29 SepTuesday
    • AfD: 205 seats (+1)
    • CDU/CSU: 145 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 93 seats (−1)
    • Linke: 79 seats (−1)
  17. 28 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 144 seats (−1)
    • SPD: 94 seats (+1)
    • GRUENE: 107 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 80 seats (−1)
  18. 26 SepSaturday · rebuilt
    • AFD: 204 seats (−1)
    • LINKE: 81 seats (+1)
  19. 25 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • AFD: 205 seats (+2)
    • GRUENE: 106 seats (−1)
    • LINKE: 80 seats (−1)
  20. 22 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 145 seats (−1)
    • AFD: 203 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 93 seats (+2)
    • GRUENE: 107 seats (−1)
    • LINKE: 81 seats (−1)
  21. 16 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 146 seats (+3)
    • AFD: 202 seats (−2)
    • GRUENE: 108 seats (−1)
  22. 15 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 143 seats (−2)
    • GRUENE: 109 seats (+2)
  23. 14 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 145 seats (−2)
    • AFD: 204 seats (+3)
    • SPD: 91 seats (−1)
    • GRUENE: 107 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 82 seats (−1)
    • UNION: 20.1% of the vote (−0.4)
  24. 12 SepSaturday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 147 seats (−1)
    • SPD: 92 seats (+2)
    • LINKE: 83 seats (−1)
  25. 8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 148 seats (+1)
    • AFD: 201 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 90 seats (−1)
    • LINKE: 84 seats (−1)
  26. 7 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 147 seats (−3)
    • GRUENE: 106 seats (+2)
    • LINKE: 85 seats (+1)
  27. 31 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • AFD: 200 seats (−2)
    • SPD: 91 seats (−1)
    • GRUENE: 104 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 84 seats (+2)
  28. 29 AugSaturday · rebuilt
    • AFD: 202 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 92 seats (+1)
    • GRUENE: 103 seats (−1)
    • LINKE: 82 seats (−1)
  29. 26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 150 seats (−1)
    • AFD: 201 seats (−1)
    • GRUENE: 104 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 83 seats (+1)
  30. 24 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • AFD: 202 seats (+1)
    • SPD: 91 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 82 seats (−2)
  31. 21 AugFriday · rebuilt
    • GRUENE: 103 seats (+1)
    • LINKE: 84 seats (−1)
  32. 20 AugThursday · rebuilt
    • UNION: 151 seats (−1)
    • AFD: 201 seats (+1)