Germany Bundestag electionby 25 Mar 2029in 874 days CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens 97% Calendar Track record Research
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Germany · Seats changing hands

73 seats change hands since 2025, AfD up 46

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2025. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. AfDfrom CDU/CSU 38 seats
  2. Greensfrom CDU/CSU 17 seats
  3. SPDfrom CDU/CSU 8 seats
  4. AfDfrom SPD 8 seats
  5. Greensfrom SPD 2 seats

Every seat

  1. LandshutBY AfD from CDU/CSU 29% chance
  2. Rottal-InnBY AfD from CDU/CSU 35% chance
  3. Düsseldorf IINW Greens from CDU/CSU 37% chance
  4. Augsburg-StadtBY AfD from CDU/CSU 38% chance
  5. Solingen – Remscheid – Wuppertal IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 40% chance
  6. St. WendelSL AfD from CDU/CSU 48% chance
  7. Hamburg-MitteHH Greens from SPD 50% chance
  8. GießenHE AfD from CDU/CSU 50% chance
  9. Cuxhaven – Stade IINI SPD from CDU/CSU 51% chance
  10. NeuwiedRP AfD from CDU/CSU 52% chance
  11. Steinburg – Dithmarschen SüdSH AfD from CDU/CSU 52% chance
  12. Göttingen INI SPD from CDU/CSU 53% chance
  13. GöppingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 53% chance
  14. Salzgitter – WolfenbüttelNI AfD from SPD 54% chance
  15. Bottrop – Recklinghausen IIINW AfD from CDU/CSU 55% chance
  16. Recklinghausen IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 57% chance
  17. Rhein-NeckarBW AfD from CDU/CSU 57% chance
  18. MainzRP Greens from CDU/CSU 58% chance
  19. Bruchsal – SchwetzingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 59% chance
  20. Siegen-WittgensteinNW AfD from CDU/CSU 60% chance
  21. Köln INW Greens from SPD 61% chance
  22. HanauHE AfD from CDU/CSU 62% chance
  23. Stuttgart IIBW Greens from CDU/CSU 63% chance
  24. Backnang – Schwäbisch GmündBW AfD from CDU/CSU 64% chance
  25. Herford – Minden-Lübbecke IINW AfD from CDU/CSU 65% chance
  26. Berlin-ReinickendorfBE AfD from CDU/CSU 68% chance
  27. Hamburg-NordHH Greens from CDU/CSU 70% chance
  28. BonnNW Greens from CDU/CSU 70% chance
  29. Berlin-Spandau – Charlottenburg NordBE AfD from SPD 70% chance
  30. Schwäbisch Hall – HohenloheBW AfD from CDU/CSU 70% chance
  31. Delmenhorst – Wesermarsch – Oldenburg-LandNI AfD from CDU/CSU 71% chance
  32. Groß-GerauHE SPD from CDU/CSU 71% chance
  33. Krefeld II – Wesel IINW SPD from CDU/CSU 72% chance
  34. WaldeckHE AfD from CDU/CSU 72% chance
  35. Berlin-Steglitz-ZehlendorfBE Greens from CDU/CSU 73% chance
  36. Nürnberg-NordBY Greens from CDU/CSU 74% chance
  37. Essen IINW AfD from SPD 74% chance
  38. HomburgSL AfD from SPD 75% chance
  39. SaarlouisSL AfD from CDU/CSU 75% chance
  40. Rottweil – TuttlingenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 76% chance
  41. Flensburg – SchleswigSH Greens from CDU/CSU 76% chance
  42. KreuznachRP AfD from CDU/CSU 76% chance
  43. München-NordBY Greens from CDU/CSU 76% chance
  44. Helmstedt – WolfsburgNI AfD from CDU/CSU 77% chance
  45. Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis IINW SPD from CDU/CSU 77% chance
  46. Lahn-DillHE AfD from CDU/CSU 78% chance
  47. Duisburg IINW AfD from SPD 78% chance
  48. Zollernalb – SigmaringenBW AfD from CDU/CSU 80% chance
  49. Frankfurt am Main IHE SPD from CDU/CSU 80% chance
  50. Stadt OsnabrückNI SPD from CDU/CSU 81% chance
  51. Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-RotenburgHE AfD from CDU/CSU 81% chance
  52. TübingenBW Greens from CDU/CSU 81% chance
  53. MannheimBW AfD from CDU/CSU 83% chance
  54. PforzheimBW AfD from CDU/CSU 83% chance
  55. TrierRP SPD from CDU/CSU 85% chance
  56. Minden-Lübbecke INW AfD from CDU/CSU 85% chance
  57. HeilbronnBW AfD from CDU/CSU 86% chance
  58. GelsenkirchenNW AfD from SPD 86% chance
  59. DarmstadtHE Greens from CDU/CSU 88% chance
  60. Lippe INW AfD from CDU/CSU 88% chance
  61. München-West/MitteBY Greens from CDU/CSU 88% chance
  62. Main-Kinzig – Wetterau II – SchottenHE AfD from CDU/CSU 89% chance
  63. Schwalm-EderHE AfD from CDU/CSU 91% chance
  64. Hagen – Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis INW AfD from CDU/CSU 91% chance
  65. PirmasensRP AfD from CDU/CSU 93% chance
  66. Aachen INW Greens from CDU/CSU 93% chance
  67. Berlin-Charlottenburg-WilmersdorfBE Greens from CDU/CSU 97% chance
  68. Ludwigshafen/FrankenthalRP AfD from CDU/CSU 97% chance
  69. KaiserslauternRP AfD from SPD 98% chance
  70. Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming IIBB AfD from SPD 98% chance
  71. HeidelbergBW Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance
  72. Frankfurt am Main IIHE Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance
  73. München-SüdBY Greens from CDU/CSU 99% chance

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