Germany · The threshold
FDP on the edge of Germany's threshold
To win seats a party needs 5% of second votes nationally, or three constituencies. A party under 5% still wins its share of seats if it wins three constituencies (the Grundmandatsklausel, restored by the Constitutional Court in 2024). Parties of national minorities, such as the SSW, are exempt.
- 5parties above the line today
- 1between a 5% and 95% chance
- 5.0%the line
Every party against the line
- AfD27.6% on our projection over 99% to clear it
- CDU/CSU20.6% on our projection over 99% to clear it
- Greens14.9% on our projection over 99% to clear it
- SPD13.6% on our projection over 99% to clear it
- Linke10.6% on our projection over 99% to clear it
- FDP4.0% on our projection 24% to clear it
- BSW3.2% on our projection 4% to clear it
The black line marks the threshold. The chance allows for how far final polls usually miss for a party of that size (about a point at 5%), and for the three constituencies a party can win instead (from our seat simulations) as if the election were held today; months out, polls move more than that. Our projection → · Build a coalition →