The two Konfederacjas together outpoll PiS in IBRiS, and the right keeps its majority
IBRiS has Konfederacja and Braun's party on 24.1 per cent combined, five points more than PiS. Our projection gives the three right-wing parties 240 seats.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
IBRiS's poll for Polsat News (14 to 16 October) put the two Konfederacja parties, taken together, ahead of PiS. Konfederacja, led by Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Mentzen, was on 12.7 per cent and Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej on 11.4: 24.1 between them, against 19.1 for PiS. KO led on 27.8.
Other pollsters put PiS higher. Ipsos (22 October) had it on 26.3, Pollster (27 October) on 22.7, OGB (13 October) on 25.0. But the trend is the same: PiS lower than at the 2023 election, the two Konfederacjas between them in the low to mid 20s.
Our projection
Our average has KO on 33.2 per cent, 10.7 points ahead of PiS. If the Sejm were elected now, KO would win 191 of 460 seats, PiS 132, Konfederacja 64, Braun's party 44, the Lewica 20 and Rozwój Plus 9.
The governing coalition would have 211 seats, 20 short of the 231 needed. It keeps a majority in only 7 per cent of our simulations. PiS and the two Konfederacjas together would have 240, though nothing guarantees they would govern together.
The threshold parties
Several parties sit near the 5 per cent threshold, and seats swing on whether they clear it. Rozwój Plus, the party of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, is on 3.6 to 6.8 per cent. The PSL is on 2.2 to 5.5. Razem is on 2.8 to 5.4.
The next election is due in autumn 2027.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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