KO leads both polls as KKP gains in our average
KO is on 33.4 in our average and PiS on 21.3. Our forecast still gives the right-wing parties together a likely Sejm majority.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 18 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Two polls of the Sejm vote were published in the week to 21 October, and both put KO first. Our average has KO on 33.4 per cent, down 0.2 points over the last week of polling, and PiS on 21.3, down 0.3. Konfederacja is on 13.8 and KKP on 10.3, up 1.3, the largest move of the week. Lewica fell 0.5 points to 6.6, and Rozwój Plus is on 5.3. Razem is on 3.9, PSL on 3.5 and Polska 2050 on 1.3.
United Surveys and IBRiS
United Surveys, with fieldwork ending on 18 October, had KO on 32.4 and PiS on 18.8, a lead of 13.6 points. Its PiS figure was 2.5 points below our average. Konfederacja was on 14.4, KKP on 10.9, Lewica on 8 and Rozwój Plus on 6.8, 1.5 points above our average.
The Instytut Badań Rynkowych i Społecznych (IBRiS), finishing on 16 October, had a narrower lead of 9.3 points: KO 29.8, PiS 20.5. Its KO figure was 3.6 points below our average, the largest difference of the week. It had KKP on 12.2, 1.9 points above our average, and PSL on 5.5, 2 points above.
Some of what the two polls share is their usual pattern. Both have tended to show PSL higher than other pollsters, by 1.4 points for United Surveys and 1.3 for IBRiS, and Rozwój Plus higher too, by 1 and 1.2 points. Both have usually shown Lewica a little higher and Razem 0.7 points lower. Each of those is a clear difference.
With their usual differences taken off, United Surveys reads KO 32.4, PiS 19.2 and Konfederacja 14.5, and IBRiS reads KO 30.2, PiS 20.4 and Konfederacja 13.7. On that basis the KO lead is 13.2 points in one and 9.8 in the other. The gap between the two polls on KO is wider than the normal scatter of a single poll, about 3 points on a party's share 19 times in 20, so the week leaves some doubt about where KO stands.
Our forecast
Our projection makes KO the largest party with 191 seats, up from 157 at the last election. PiS would fall to 123 from 194, Konfederacja would rise to 70 from 18, KKP would win 47, Lewica 19 and Rozwój Plus 10. With 231 seats needed for a majority, no party comes close on its own.
The parties of the government would have 210 seats in our projection and win a majority in only 8 per cent of our simulations, 7 per cent in both chambers. The right-wing parties together, KKP included, would have 250 seats and a majority in 91 per cent. Lewica clears the 5 per cent threshold in 77 per cent.
The next Sejm election is due by 11 November 2027 at the latest, 386 days away.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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