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Przesuń sondaże → Wszystkie narzędzia →Where the polls stood 12 months before the last general election, and what happened next. The biggest move from this point: KO in 2023, +3.6 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
PiS led by 6.1. PiS won the vote by 4.7 on 15 October.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PiS | 33.2 | 35.4 | +2.2 |
| KO | 27.1 | 30.7 | +3.6 |
| Third Way | 16.0 | 14.4 | −1.6 |
| Lewica | 8.1 | 8.6 | +0.5 |
| Konfederacja | 6.0 | 7.2 | +1.2 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| KO | 33.2 | 36.8 |
| PiS | 22.5 | 24.7 |
| Konfederacja | 13.1 | 14.3 |
| KKP | 9.7 | |
| Lewica | 6.6 | 7.1 |
| Rozwój Plus | 5.1 | |
| Razem | 3.9 | |
| PSL | 3.6 |
KO stays ahead in every one. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. Third Way's line is PSL's Polish Coalition in 2019.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2019 Polish parliamentary election, Opinion polling for the 2023 Polish parliamentary election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
