Polska Najbliższe wyborynajpóźniej 11 lis 2027za 375 dni Government majority 7% Right-wing majority 91% Kalendarz Skuteczność Badania
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Poland · changelog

What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our Poland forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 26 OctMonday
    • PiS: 132 seats (+2)
    • KKP: 44 seats (−2)
    • Lewica: 20 seats (+1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 9 seats (−1)
    • PiS: 22.5% of the vote (+0.5)
    • Konfederacja: 13.1% of the vote (−0.4)
  2. 23 OctFriday
    • KO: 191 seats (+1)
    • PiS: 130 seats (+8)
    • Konfederacja: 64 seats (−5)
    • KKP: 46 seats (−2)
    • Rozwój Plus: 10 seats (−2)
    • PiS: 21.9% of the vote (+0.7)
    • KKP: 9.9% of the vote (−0.4)
  3. 22 OctThursday
    • KO: 190 seats (−1)
    • PiS: 122 seats (−1)
    • Konfederacja: 69 seats (−1)
    • KKP: 48 seats (+1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 12 seats (+2)
  4. 20 OctTuesday
    • KO: 191 seats (−2)
    • PiS: 123 seats (−1)
    • KKP: 47 seats (+3)
    • KO: 33.4% of the vote (−0.7)
  5. 19 OctMonday
    • KO: 193 seats (−3)
    • PiS: 124 seats (−6)
    • Konfederacja: 70 seats (−3)
    • KKP: 44 seats (+3)
    • Lewica: 19 seats (−1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 10 seats (+10)
    • KO: 34.1% of the vote (+0.5)
    • PiS: 21.4% of the vote (−0.5)
    • KKP: 9.9% of the vote (+0.7)
    • Lewica: 6.4% of the vote (−0.5)
  6. 15 OctThursday
    • KO: 196 seats (+3)
    • PiS: 130 seats (+7)
    • Konfederacja: 73 seats (−1)
    • Lewica: 20 seats (−1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 0 seats (−8)
    • PiS: 21.9% of the vote (+0.8)
    • Rozwój Plus: 4.7% of the vote (−0.4)
  7. 12 OctMonday
    • KO: 193 seats (+1)
    • PiS: 123 seats (+4)
    • Konfederacja: 74 seats (+1)
    • KKP: 41 seats (+2)
    • Lewica: 21 seats (−5)
    • Rozwój Plus: 8 seats (−3)
    • Lewica: 7.2% of the vote (−0.5)
  8. 8 OctThursday
    • KO: 192 seats (+1)
    • PiS: 119 seats (−5)
    • Konfederacja: 73 seats (+1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 11 seats (+3)
    • KO: 33.3% of the vote (+0.4)
  9. 7 OctWednesday
    • PiS: 124 seats (+6)
    • Konfederacja: 72 seats (−1)
    • Lewica: 26 seats (−1)
    • Rozwój Plus: 8 seats (−4)
    • PiS: 21.4% of the vote (+0.6)
  10. 22 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • KO: 191 seats (+3)
    • KONF: 73 seats (+2)
    • KKP: 39 seats (−1)
    • LEW: 27 seats (−4)
    • PIS: 118 seats (+1)
    • RPLUS: 12 seats (−1)
    • KO: 32.8% of the vote (+0.4)
    • PSL: 2.8% of the vote (−0.5)
  11. 21 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • KO: 188 seats (+5)
    • KONF: 71 seats (−4)
    • RPLUS: 13 seats (−1)
  12. 20 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • KONF: 75 seats (−2)
    • KKP: 40 seats (+1)
    • LEW: 31 seats (+5)
    • PIS: 117 seats (−3)
    • RPLUS: 14 seats (−1)
    • PIS: 20.4% of the vote (−0.4)
    • KONF: 14.5% of the vote (−0.4)
    • KKP: 9.1% of the vote (+0.7)
  13. 19 SepSaturday · rebuilt
    • KO: 183 seats (+4)
    • KONF: 77 seats (+1)
    • KKP: 39 seats (+1)
    • LEW: 26 seats (−4)
    • PIS: 120 seats (−2)
    • PIS: 20.8% of the vote (−0.6)
  14. 14 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • KO: 179 seats (−1)
    • KONF: 76 seats (−3)
    • KKP: 38 seats (−1)
    • LEW: 30 seats (+3)
    • PIS: 122 seats (+1)
    • RPLUS: 15 seats (+1)
    • KONF: 14.7% of the vote (−0.6)
  15. 9 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • KO: 180 seats (+1)
    • KKP: 39 seats (−2)
    • LEW: 27 seats (+4)
    • PIS: 121 seats (−9)
    • RPLUS: 14 seats (+6)
    • PIS: 21.3% of the vote (−0.6)
    • KKP: 8.4% of the vote (−0.5)
    • LEW: 7.8% of the vote (+0.6)
    • RPLUS: 5.8% of the vote (+0.5)
    • PL2050: 1.2% of the vote (−0.6)
  16. 6 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • KO: 179 seats (+4)
    • KKP: 41 seats (−3)
    • LEW: 23 seats (+1)
    • PIS: 130 seats (−2)
    • KKP: 8.9% of the vote (−0.6)
    • PSL: 3.6% of the vote (+0.4)
  17. 2 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • KO: 175 seats (+3)
    • KONF: 79 seats (−1)
    • KKP: 44 seats (−2)
    • LEW: 22 seats (+2)
    • PIS: 132 seats (−1)
    • RPLUS: 8 seats (−1)
    • KO: 31.3% of the vote (+0.4)
  18. 27 AugThursday · rebuilt
    • KO: 172 seats (−5)
    • KONF: 80 seats (−2)
    • LEW: 20 seats (+2)
    • PIS: 133 seats (+10)
    • RPLUS: 9 seats (−5)
    • KO: 30.9% of the vote (−0.4)
    • PIS: 22.2% of the vote (+0.9)
    • RAZEM: 4.3% of the vote (−0.5)
    • PSL: 3.1% of the vote (+0.5)
  19. 24 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • KO: 177 seats (−3)
    • KONF: 82 seats (+8)
    • KKP: 46 seats (+3)
    • LEW: 18 seats (−3)
    • PIS: 123 seats (−8)
    • RPLUS: 14 seats (+3)
    • KO: 31.3% of the vote (−0.5)
    • PIS: 21.3% of the vote (−1.1)
    • KONF: 15.6% of the vote (+1.0)
    • RAZEM: 4.8% of the vote (+0.4)
  20. 23 AugSunday · rebuilt
    • KO: 180 seats (−3)
    • KONF: 74 seats (+3)
    • KKP: 43 seats (−3)
    • LEW: 21 seats (+1)
    • PIS: 131 seats (+4)
    • RPLUS: 11 seats (−2)
    • KONF: 14.6% of the vote (+0.5)
  21. 22 AugSaturday · rebuilt
    • KO: 183 seats (+2)
    • LEW: 20 seats (−2)
    • PIS: 127 seats (+1)
    • RPLUS: 13 seats (−1)
  22. 20 AugThursday · rebuilt
    • KO: 181 seats (+1)
    • KONF: 71 seats (+3)
    • LEW: 22 seats (−2)
    • PIS: 126 seats (−1)
    • RPLUS: 14 seats (−1)
    • LEW: 7.2% of the vote (−0.4)