Marine Le Pen's most dangerous opponent is a court date on 16 December
She leads every poll by around sixteen points and wins every run-off pollsters test. The only thing in her way is the Cour de cassation, and its timetable could run right up to the first round.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 11 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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Marine Le Pen has never led a presidential race like this, five months out.
Harris Interactive's latest, published on 9 November, puts her on 34% to 36% depending on who else runs, up one or two points on late October. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second on 18% to 19%. Raphaël Glucksmann is on 11% to 13%, Édouard Philippe 11% to 14%, David Lisnard 9% and Bruno Retailleau 5% to 8%. Éric Zemmour is down to 3% or 4% (La DH).
In the run-off, Harris has her beating Mélenchon 68-32, Glucksmann 60-40 and Philippe 58-42. On our numbers, which trim the RN because French run-off polls have overstated it every time it has reached one, she is elected in 96% of our simulations and her poll average is 34.5%.
Why the polls are not the story
Five months before the first round, the result looks settled. What is not settled is whether she will be on the ballot.
Le Pen was convicted on appeal in July in the European Parliament assistants case and sentenced to three years, one of them to be served, possibly under electronic tag. The appeal to the Cour de cassation suspends that sentence. On 16 December the court will examine the priority constitutional questions her lawyers and co-defendants have raised, and it is expected to rule on them the same day (L'Express via Orange).
There are two ways it can go:
- The questions go to the Conseil constitutionnel. The Conseil then has three months to answer, the appeal is suspended in the meantime, and Le Pen can campaign without a ruling hanging over her until well into the spring.
- The questions are rejected. The criminal chamber then hears the appeal itself, and a decision on the merits could come in late March or early April 2027, weeks before the first round on 18 April. If the conviction is confirmed, a judge would rule quickly on how the sentence is applied.
The second path is the one that could change the race. A front-runner removed from the ballot weeks before the vote would be without precedent in France. The RN's answer would be its president, Jordan Bardella, but a campaign built on one name for more than a decade would have to be rebuilt in a month.
The race for second
If the race for the Élysée looks settled, the race to face her is not. In the spring Philippe was the obvious run-off opponent. Harris now has him seven points behind Mélenchon. Glucksmann won the left's primary in October but has stalled since. Lisnard is the riser: in a Figaro barometer on presidential stature he gained eight points in a month, to 23%, level with Gabriel Attal, Retailleau and Glucksmann.
And the field keeps growing. Teddy Riner, the judo champion, announced on 9 November that he is running, without giving up his plans for the 2028 Olympics.
What it means for our forecast
For now, our model treats the court case as what it is: a known unknown with no date for a final ruling. We do not move Le Pen's chance on speculation. On 16 December we will know which path the case is on, and if it is the second one, the forecast will show the alternative run-offs with Bardella in her place.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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