The left is five seats short of an Assembly majority in our projection
If the National Assembly were elected now, the left would win 284 of 577 seats. A repeat of 2017's polling miss would take it to 311; a 2002 miss would leave it on 266.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
President Macron could dissolve the National Assembly again at any time. Our projection shows what today's legislative polls would give if he did.
The left, the New Popular Front and other left candidates, wins 284 seats, five short of the 289 needed for a majority. The National Rally and its allies win 123, Ensemble and the centre 79, the Republicans and the other right 75, and regionalists and others 16.
That is a big change from the parliament elected in 2024, and from our projection a month ago, which had the Assembly hung. The left has gained because the centre and the right are split, and because in a second round the National Rally's candidates still lose most head-to-head contests against the left.
The polling misses
Taken as published, the polls give the left 269 seats and the National Rally 138. We take some of the RN's share off because Assembly polls overstated it at all six elections since 2002.
How past misses would change the result:
- Like 2017: the left 311, a majority; the RN 83.
- Like 2012: the left 305, a majority.
- Like 2007: the left 286.
- Like 2002: the left 266; the Republicans and the right rise to 94.
- Like 2024: the left 282; the RN 102.
In two of the six the left wins a majority outright; in the others it is the largest bloc, short by up to 23 seats.
The closest seats in our projection include Eure-et-Loir 2, Ain 1 and Drôme 4, all narrowly RN, and Cher 1, narrowly left.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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