Le Pen leads all four polls; second place stays open

Four polls of the first round of the 2027 presidential election were published in the week to 21 October, and all four put Marine Le Pen first. Our average has her on 34.6 per cent, up 0.8 points over the last week of polling. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is second on 16.7, down 0.8, and Édouard Philippe third on 15.3, down 1.5. Raphaël Glucksmann rose 1.7 points to 12.7, and Bruno Retailleau is on 7.5.

The round one vote is on 18 April 2027, 179 days away.

Two polls with Mélenchon second, two with Philippe

Ifop and YouGov put Mélenchon second. Ifop, with fieldwork ending on 19 October, had Le Pen on 36, Mélenchon on 16.5, Philippe on 15 and Glucksmann on 14, a lead of 19.5 points. YouGov, which finished on 15 October, had Le Pen on 36 and Mélenchon on 15, with Philippe and Glucksmann level on 13, a lead of 21 points. YouGov also had Marine Tondelier on 6, 2.7 points above our average.

Elabe and Cluster17 had Philippe second. Elabe, finishing on 16 October, had the lowest Le Pen figure of the week at 32.5, 2.1 points below our average, with Philippe on 16.5, Glucksmann on 15.5 and Mélenchon on 15. Its Glucksmann figure was 2.8 points above our average. Elabe has only three polls in our data, too few to say whether these differences are usual for it.

Cluster17 stood furthest from the rest. It had Le Pen on 35.7, Philippe on 20 and Mélenchon on 19.8: Philippe 4.7 points and Mélenchon 3.1 points above our average. Some of that is its usual pattern. Across its polls Cluster17 has tended to show Mélenchon 1.6 points higher and Philippe 1.4 points higher than other pollsters, and Le Pen 1.9 points lower, all clear differences. With those taken off, its poll reads Le Pen 37.6, Philippe 18.6 and Mélenchon 18.2, a Le Pen lead of 19 points.

Taken like for like, the four polls agree more than their headline figures suggest. Every one has Le Pen ahead by between 15.7 and 21 points as published, and the fight for second place is within the normal scatter of a single poll, about 3 points either way 19 times in 20.

Our forecast

Our forecast makes Marine Le Pen the favourite for the Élysée, winning in 88 per cent of our simulations. The most likely round two is Le Pen against Mélenchon, which happens in 66 per cent of them. Philippe wins in 12 per cent.

If the Assemblée nationale were elected on today's polls, our projection has the left (NFP and other left) on 272 seats, short of the 289 needed for a majority, with RN and allies on 125, Ensemble and the centre on 91 and LR and the other right on 73.

Our average draws on 11 polls published in the last 30 days.