Only a repeat of 2004's polling miss brings the PP and Vox close to losing their majority
We replayed every Spanish polling miss since 2004 on today's polls. In all of them the PP and Vox keep 176 seats or more; in 2004's they keep 177.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Spanish polls have missed before, sometimes badly. In 2004 they had the PP ahead and the PSOE won by 5 points. In 2023 most private pollsters had the PP and Vox close to a majority, and they fell well short. With 24 days to go, the question is whether a miss like those could change the result on 29 November.
We take the Spanish polls as published, with no correction, because past misses have not run consistently in one direction. But we replay each past miss on today's figures.
Every past miss, replayed
- Like 2004, when the polls understated the PSOE most: PP 107, PSOE 138, Vox 70. The PP and Vox together have 177, one more than a majority.
- Like 2023: PP 124, PSOE 130, Vox 64. The PSOE is the largest party, but the PP and Vox have 188.
- Like November 2019: PP 123, PSOE 109, Vox 80.
- Like 2016, when the polls understated the PP: PP 140, PSOE 115, Vox 63.
In every case the PP and Vox reach 176. That is why they win a majority in 99 per cent of our simulations.
Why the PSOE's gains do so little
The PSOE has closed the gap from 6.1 points to 3.9 in a month. But Sumar and Podemos have fallen as it has risen, so much of the movement is within the left. The PP and Vox together stay near 50 per cent of the vote.
The CIS is the one poll that puts the PSOE well ahead: 34 per cent to the PP's 22.2. It has put the PSOE well above the private pollsters for years. Its figures are on our polls page, beside everyone else's.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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