Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Umbrete: no list would have a majority, PSOE-A largest

Umbrete (Sevilla, 9,253 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE-A−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 46.2% of the vote (2023: 50.1%) Majority 45%
PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 33.0% of the vote (2023: 33.7%) Majority under 1%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 17.2% of the vote (2023: 10.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 55% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOE-APSOE 50.1% → 46.2% 7 → 6 councillors
  2. PPPP 33.7% → 33.0% 5 → 5 councillors
  3. VOXVox 10.4% → 17.2% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 5.0% → 2.8% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 4,569 valid votes including 37 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Umbrete in size, in Sevilla

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