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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Navarra

Estella-Lizarra: UPN would win a majority

Estella-Lizarra (Navarra, 13,977 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

UPN+2
9 councillors (2023: 7) · 39.3% of the vote (2023: 36.8%) Majority 33%
EH BILDU+1
6 councillors (2023: 5) · 30.0% of the vote (2023: 27.4%) Majority 1%
PSN-PSOE−1
1 councillors (2023: 2) · 8.6% of the vote (2023: 11.2%) Majority 0%
GEROA BAI±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 7.9% of the vote (2023: 7.4%) Majority 0%
PP−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 4.3% of the vote (2023: 5.2%) Majority 0%
CONTIGO ZUREKIN−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 4.1% of the vote (2023: 6.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 66% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

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The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

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About Estella-Lizarra

Estella-Lizarra is a municipality in the province of Navarra with 13,977 inhabitants, the 7th largest of its 234 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 UPN came first with 36.8% of the vote and 7 seats; EH BILDU was second with 5. 60.4% of the 10,532 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps UPN on 9 seats, a majority, which it holds in 33% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. UPNUPN 36.8% → 39.3% 7 → 9 councillors
  2. EH BILDUEH Bildu 27.4% → 30.0% 5 → 6 councillors
  3. PSN-PSOEPSOE 11.2% → 8.6% 2 → 1 councillors
  4. GEROA BAILocal lists 7.4% → 7.9% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PPPP 5.2% → 4.3% 1 → 0 councillors
  6. CONTIGO ZUREKINSumar, Podemos and allies 6.4% → 4.1% 1 → 0 councillors
  7. IXELLocal lists 3.9% → 4.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,358 valid votes including 113 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Estella-Lizarra in size, in Navarra

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