San Javier: PP would keep its majority
San Javier (Murcia, 34,468 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 21councillors, 11 for a majority
- 72%PP majority
- 12,691valid votes in 2023 (58% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 28% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About San Javier
San Javier is a municipality in the province of Murcia with 34,468 inhabitants, the 10th largest of its 45 municipalities. Its council has 21 seats, and 11 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 49.5% of the vote and 11 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE was second with 4. 57.9% of the 21,914 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 11 seats, a majority, which it holds in 72% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 49.5% → 47.5% 11 → 11 councillors
- VOXVox 15.6% → 23.3% 3 → 5 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 16.9% → 13.5% 4 → 3 councillors
- PLEAMAR, C.I.Local lists 8.9% → 9.0% 2 → 2 councillors
- PODEMOS+IU-VERDES+AVSumar, Podemos and allies 5.4% → 3.0% 1 → 0 councillors
- CSCiudadanos 2.5% → 2.5% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 12,691 valid votes including 149 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.