Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Cieza: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Cieza (Murcia, 35,298 inhabitants) elects 21 councillors on 23 May 2027; 11 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE±0
9 councillors (2023: 9) · 36.0% of the vote (2023: 39.4%) Majority 4%
PP−1
8 councillors (2023: 9) · 35.4% of the vote (2023: 35.7%) Majority 4%
VOX+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 19.8% of the vote (2023: 12.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (11 of 21). No list with a majority in 92% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 39.4% → 36.0% 9 → 9 councillors
  2. PPPP 35.7% → 35.4% 9 → 8 councillors
  3. VOXVox 12.3% → 19.8% 3 → 4 councillors
  4. CSCiudadanos 3.1% → 3.3% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. IU-VSumar, Podemos and allies 4.8% → 2.6% 0 → 0 councillors
  6. UCINLocal lists 1.1% → 1.2% 0 → 0 councillors
  7. FE DE LAS JONSLocal lists 0.5% → 0.5% 0 → 0 councillors
  8. PODEMOS-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 2.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 15,505 valid votes including 154 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Cieza in size, in Murcia

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