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Cehegín: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Cehegín (Murcia, 14,710 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 31.6% of the vote (2023: 32.4%) Majority under 1%
PSOE−1
5 councillors (2023: 6) · 27.1% of the vote (2023: 30.6%) Majority 0%
XCEH±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 19.7% of the vote (2023: 18.9%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 10.4% of the vote (2023: 5.3%) Majority 0%
GESTIONA±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 9.9% of the vote (2023: 9.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in over 99% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Cehegín

Cehegín is a municipality in the province of Murcia with 14,710 inhabitants, the 25th largest of its 45 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PP came first with 32.4% of the vote and 6 seats; PSOE was second with 6. 69% of the 11,333 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PP would be largest on 6 of 17.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 32.4% → 31.6% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 30.6% → 27.1% 6 → 5 councillors
  3. XCEHLocal lists 18.9% → 19.7% 3 → 3 councillors
  4. VOXVox 5.3% → 10.4% 1 → 2 councillors
  5. GESTIONALocal lists 9.6% → 9.9% 1 → 1 councillors
  6. PODEMOS+IU-VERDES+AVSumar, Podemos and allies 2.4% → 0.4% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 7,819 valid votes including 69 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Cehegín in size, in Murcia

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