España Próximas elecciones29 nov 2026en 27 días PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendario Historial Investigación

Puerto Lumbreras: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Puerto Lumbreras (Murcia, 16,564 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
8 councillors (2023: 8) · 39.8% of the vote (2023: 40.3%) Majority 13%
PSOE−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 38.7% of the vote (2023: 42.4%) Majority 14%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 14.8% of the vote (2023: 8.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 73% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 40.3% → 39.8% 8 → 8 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 42.4% → 38.7% 8 → 7 councillors
  3. VOXVox 8.6% → 14.8% 1 → 2 councillors
  4. VALORESLocal lists 3.5% → 3.6% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. IU-VSumar, Podemos and allies 4.2% → 2.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 7,663 valid votes including 85 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Puerto Lumbreras in size, in Murcia

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