Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Ceutí: no list would have a majority, PSOE largest

Ceutí (Murcia, 12,391 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PSOE−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 41.4% of the vote (2023: 47.0%) Majority 16%
PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 28.6% of the vote (2023: 30.5%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
4 councillors (2023: 3) · 23.3% of the vote (2023: 15.8%) Majority 0%
CS±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.7% of the vote (2023: 5.7%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 84% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PSOEPSOE 47.0% → 41.4% 8 → 7 councillors
  2. PPPP 30.5% → 28.6% 5 → 5 councillors
  3. VOXVox 15.8% → 23.3% 3 → 4 councillors
  4. CSCiudadanos 5.7% → 5.7% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 6,046 valid votes including 56 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Ceutí in size, in Murcia

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