Guaro: PP would keep its majority
Guaro (Málaga, 2,302 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 96%PP majority
- 1,070valid votes in 2023 (67% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 3% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Guaro
Guaro is a municipality in the province of Málaga with 2,302 inhabitants, the 55th largest of its 103 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PP came first with 58.2% of the vote and 7 seats, an absolute majority; PSOE-A was second with 4. 67.5% of the 1,586 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps PP on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 96% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 58.2% → 58.8% 7 → 7 councillors
- PSOE-APSOE 33.3% → 30.3% 4 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 3.3% → 7.9% 0 → 1 councillors
- CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 4.3% → 2.2% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,070 valid votes including 10 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.