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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Madrid

Serranillos del Valle: TDS would keep its majority

Serranillos del Valle (Madrid, 4,509 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

TDS−1
7 councillors (2023: 8) · 56.8% of the vote (2023: 57.2%) Majority 98%
VOX+1
2 councillors (2023: 1) · 21.2% of the vote (2023: 14.3%) Majority 0%
PP±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 17.2% of the vote (2023: 19.0%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Serranillos del Valle

Serranillos del Valle is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 4,509 inhabitants, the 88th largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 TDS came first with 57.2% of the vote and 8 seats, an absolute majority; PP was second with 2. 71.7% of the 3,458 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps TDS on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 98% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. TDSLocal lists 57.2% → 56.8% 8 → 7 councillors
  2. VOXVox 14.3% → 21.2% 1 → 2 councillors
  3. PPPP 19.0% → 17.2% 2 → 2 councillors
  4. PSOEPSOE 6.5% → 3.7% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. IU - PODEMOS - AVSumar, Podemos and allies 2.0% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,479 valid votes including 26 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Serranillos del Valle in size, in Madrid

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