Ajalvir: AIA would win a majority
Ajalvir (Madrid, 4,751 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 51%no list with a majority
- 2,319valid votes in 2023 (65% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
AIA+1
6
councillors (2023: 5) · 43.9% of the vote (2023: 42.3%)
Majority 49%
PP±0
3
councillors (2023: 3) · 25.2% of the vote (2023: 26.0%)
Majority 0%
VOX±0
1
councillors (2023: 1) · 14.3% of the vote (2023: 8.3%)
Majority 0%
MM-VQ AJALVIR±0
1
councillors (2023: 1) · 10.3% of the vote (2023: 13.5%)
Majority 0%
PSOE−1
0
councillors (2023: 1) · 4.9% of the vote (2023: 7.6%)
Majority 0%
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 51% of 300 simulated elections.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- AIALocal lists 42.3% → 43.9% 5 → 6 councillors
- PPPP 26.0% → 25.2% 3 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 8.3% → 14.3% 1 → 1 councillors
- MM-VQ AJALVIRSumar, Podemos and allies 13.5% → 10.3% 1 → 1 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 7.6% → 4.9% 1 → 0 councillors
- PODEMOS-IU-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 0.9% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,319 valid votes including 32 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.
Near Ajalvir in size, in Madrid
- Los Molinos4,699 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Torrejón de Velasco4,685 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Valdetorres de Jarama4,830 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Robledo de Chavela4,587 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Torrelaguna4,940 inhabitants · 11 councillors
- Serranillos del Valle4,509 inhabitants · 11 councillors