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Spain · Municipal elections 2027 · Madrid

Ajalvir: AIA would win a majority

Ajalvir (Madrid, 4,751 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

AIA+1
6 councillors (2023: 5) · 43.9% of the vote (2023: 42.3%) Majority 49%
PP±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 25.2% of the vote (2023: 26.0%) Majority 0%
VOX±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 14.3% of the vote (2023: 8.3%) Majority 0%
MM-VQ AJALVIR±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 10.3% of the vote (2023: 13.5%) Majority 0%
PSOE−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 4.9% of the vote (2023: 7.6%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 51% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Ajalvir

Ajalvir is a municipality in the province of Madrid with 4,751 inhabitants, the 84th largest of its 179 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 AIA came first with 42.3% of the vote and 5 seats; PP was second with 3. 65.1% of the 3,560 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps AIA on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 49% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. AIALocal lists 42.3% → 43.9% 5 → 6 councillors
  2. PPPP 26.0% → 25.2% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. VOXVox 8.3% → 14.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. MM-VQ AJALVIRSumar, Podemos and allies 13.5% → 10.3% 1 → 1 councillors
  5. PSOEPSOE 7.6% → 4.9% 1 → 0 councillors
  6. PODEMOS-IU-AVSumar, Podemos and allies 0.9% → 0.0% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 2,319 valid votes including 32 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Ajalvir in size, in Madrid

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