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Baños de la Encina: no list would have a majority, PP largest

Baños de la Encina (Jaén, 2,594 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 45.2% of the vote (2023: 42.4%) Majority 30%
PSOE±0
5 councillors (2023: 5) · 42.7% of the vote (2023: 43.3%) Majority 23%
I.U.±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 11.5% of the vote (2023: 13.7%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 46% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Baños de la Encina

Baños de la Encina is a municipality in the province of Jaén with 2,594 inhabitants, the 51st largest of its 97 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 PSOE came first with 43.3% of the vote and 5 seats; PP was second with 5. 78.3% of the 2,142 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 5 of 11.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 42.4% → 45.2% 5 → 5 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 43.3% → 42.7% 5 → 5 councillors
  3. I.U.Sumar, Podemos and allies 13.7% → 11.5% 1 → 1 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,677 valid votes including 10 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Baños de la Encina in size, in Jaén

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