Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Guarromán: PP would keep its majority

Guarromán (Jaén, 2,748 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

PP±0
6 councillors (2023: 6) · 56.0% of the vote (2023: 54.8%) Majority 93%
PSOE±0
3 councillors (2023: 3) · 24.3% of the vote (2023: 26.8%) Majority 0%
PSLF±0
2 councillors (2023: 2) · 18.7% of the vote (2023: 17.4%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 7% of 300 simulated elections.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. PPPP 54.8% → 56.0% 6 → 6 councillors
  2. PSOEPSOE 26.8% → 24.3% 3 → 3 councillors
  3. PSLFLocal lists 17.4% → 18.7% 2 → 2 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,583 valid votes including 16 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Guarromán in size, in Jaén

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