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Punta Umbría: UPU would win a majority

Punta Umbría (Huelva, 16,167 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

UPU+1
9 councillors (2023: 8) · 44.7% of the vote (2023: 43.0%) Majority 49%
PSOE-A±0
4 councillors (2023: 4) · 21.6% of the vote (2023: 24.9%) Majority 0%
PP−1
3 councillors (2023: 4) · 19.3% of the vote (2023: 20.2%) Majority 0%
VOX+1
1 councillors (2023: 0) · 8.5% of the vote (2023: 3.9%) Majority 0%
CON ANDALUCÍA−1
0 councillors (2023: 1) · 3.0% of the vote (2023: 5.3%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 51% of 300 simulated elections.

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What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

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About Punta Umbría

Punta Umbría is a municipality in the province of Huelva with 16,167 inhabitants, the 9th largest of its 80 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 UPU came first with 43% of the vote and 8 seats; PSOE-A was second with 4. 64.2% of the 13,176 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps UPU on 9 seats, a majority, which it holds in 49% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. UPULocal lists 43.0% → 44.7% 8 → 9 councillors
  2. PSOE-APSOE 24.9% → 21.6% 4 → 4 councillors
  3. PPPP 20.2% → 19.3% 4 → 3 councillors
  4. VOXVox 3.9% → 8.5% 0 → 1 councillors
  5. CON ANDALUCÍASumar, Podemos and allies 5.3% → 3.0% 1 → 0 councillors
  6. XHLocal lists 1.8% → 1.9% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,455 valid votes including 79 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Punta Umbría in size, in Huelva

Every municipality in Huelva → · All of Spain →