Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research

Tolosa: EH BILDU would keep its majority

Tolosa (Gipuzkoa, 19,886 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.

The council after 23 May, our projection

EH BILDU+1
10 councillors (2023: 9) · 57.9% of the vote (2023: 49.2%) Majority 97%
EAJ-PNV−1
6 councillors (2023: 7) · 32.9% of the vote (2023: 36.6%) Majority under 1%
PSE-EE (PSOE)±0
1 councillors (2023: 1) · 5.4% of the vote (2023: 7.5%) Majority 0%

The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Every municipality

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

3 more parties

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

What changes hands

  1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

About Tolosa

Tolosa is a municipality in the province of Gipuzkoa with 19,886 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 88 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.

In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 49.2% of the vote and 9 seats, an absolute majority; EAJ-PNV was second with 7. 62.6% of the 15,116 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.

On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 10 seats, a majority, which it holds in 97% of our simulations.

Every list, 2023 and projected

  1. EH BILDUEH Bildu 49.2% → 57.9% 9 → 10 councillors
  2. EAJ-PNVPNV 36.6% → 32.9% 7 → 6 councillors
  3. PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 7.5% → 5.4% 1 → 1 councillors
  4. PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 3.1% → 1.1% 0 → 0 councillors
  5. PPPP 1.9% → 0.9% 0 → 0 councillors

2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,469 valid votes including 170 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.

Near Tolosa in size, in Gipuzkoa

Every municipality in Gipuzkoa → · All of Spain →