Tolosa: EH BILDU would keep its majority
Tolosa (Gipuzkoa, 19,886 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 97%EH BILDU majority
- 9,469valid votes in 2023 (63% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 2% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Tolosa
Tolosa is a municipality in the province of Gipuzkoa with 19,886 inhabitants, the 8th largest of its 88 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 49.2% of the vote and 9 seats, an absolute majority; EAJ-PNV was second with 7. 62.6% of the 15,116 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 10 seats, a majority, which it holds in 97% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 49.2% → 57.9% 9 → 10 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 36.6% → 32.9% 7 → 6 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 7.5% → 5.4% 1 → 1 councillors
- PODEMOS-EZKER ANITZA/IU-ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 3.1% → 1.1% 0 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 1.9% → 0.9% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 9,469 valid votes including 170 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.