Tarifa: no list would have a majority, PP largest
Tarifa (Cádiz, 18,564 inhabitants) elects 17 councillors on 23 May 2027; 9 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 17councillors, 9 for a majority
- 98%no list with a majority
- 8,753valid votes in 2023 (61% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (9 of 17). No list with a majority in 98% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Tarifa
Tarifa is a municipality in the province of Cádiz with 18,564 inhabitants, the 17th largest of its 45 municipalities. Its council has 17 seats, and 9 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 PSOE came first with 34.8% of the vote and 7 seats; PP was second with 7. 61.4% of the 14,250 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection gives no list a majority: PSOE would be largest on 6 of 17.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- PPPP 34.4% → 33.2% 7 → 6 councillors
- PSOEPSOE 34.8% → 30.8% 7 → 6 councillors
- NATLocal lists 14.6% → 15.0% 2 → 3 councillors
- VOXVox 3.9% → 8.4% 0 → 1 councillors
- PARA LA GENTELocal lists 7.0% → 7.2% 1 → 1 councillors
- LVELocal lists 2.1% → 2.1% 0 → 0 councillors
- UALocal lists 1.7% → 1.7% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 8,753 valid votes including 134 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.