Elorrio: EH BILDU would win a majority
Elorrio (Bizkaia, 7,309 inhabitants) elects 13 councillors on 23 May 2027; 7 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 13councillors, 7 for a majority
- 81%EH BILDU majority
- 3,824valid votes in 2023 (67% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (7 of 13). No list with a majority in 15% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Elorrio
Elorrio is a municipality in the province of Bizkaia with 7,309 inhabitants, the 29th largest of its 112 municipalities. Its council has 13 seats, and 7 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 EH BILDU came first with 43.5% of the vote and 6 seats; EAJ-PNV was second with 6. 67.2% of the 5,690 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps EH BILDU on 7 seats, a majority, which it holds in 81% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- EH BILDUEH Bildu 43.5% → 52.2% 6 → 7 councillors
- EAJ-PNVPNV 40.8% → 37.3% 6 → 5 councillors
- PODEMOS, EZKER ANITZA / IU, ALIANZA VERDESumar, Podemos and allies 9.3% → 7.4% 1 → 1 councillors
- PSE-EE (PSOE)PSOE 4.0% → 1.7% 0 → 0 councillors
- PPPP 1.1% → 0.1% 0 → 0 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 3,824 valid votes including 50 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.