Avinyó: ERC-AM would win a majority
Avinyó (Barcelona, 2,270 inhabitants) elects 11 councillors on 23 May 2027; 6 make a majority and choose the mayor. Our projection moves each list's 2023 result by its party's change in the national polls since July 2023; local lists keep their vote.
- 11councillors, 6 for a majority
- 80%ERC-AM majority
- 1,010valid votes in 2023 (59% of the electorate)
The council after 23 May, our projection
The line marks a majority (6 of 11). No list with a majority in 0% of 300 simulated elections.
What if the national vote changes? Every municipality
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 8,087 municipalities with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
3 more parties
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Avinyó
Avinyó is a municipality in the province of Barcelona with 2,270 inhabitants, the 181st largest of its 311 municipalities. Its council has 11 seats, and 6 make a majority to choose the mayor.
In May 2023 CM came first with 51.2% of the vote and 6 seats, an absolute majority; ERC-AM was second with 5. 59% of the 1,711 voters on the roll cast a valid vote.
On today's national polls our projection keeps ERC-AM on 6 seats, a majority, which it holds in 80% of our simulations.
Every list, 2023 and projected
- ERC-AMERC 46.4% → 54.9% 5 → 6 councillors
- CMJunts 51.2% → 42.7% 6 → 5 councillors
2023: the official result (Ministerio del Interior), 1,010 valid votes including 24 blank. Pale bar: 2023; solid: our projection. A list needs 5% of the valid vote for a seat.