Canada General election15 Oct 2029in 1,078 days Liberal majority over 99% No majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Canada · Votes per seat

A seat costs Green 4.9 times as many votes as Liberal

Canada elects its 343 seats by first past the post. On our projection, 68 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give.

Seats against the vote

  1. Liberal47.6% of the vote 236 seats; 168 in proportion (+68) 0.71 × the average votes per seat
  2. Conservative31.2% of the vote 72 seats; 110 in proportion (-38) 1.52 × the average votes per seat
  3. Bloc6.4% of the vote 22 seats; 23 in proportion (-1) 1.03 × the average votes per seat
  4. NDP10.2% of the vote 11 seats; 36 in proportion (-25) 3.27 × the average votes per seat
  5. Green2.0% of the vote 2 seats; 7 in proportion (-5) 3.46 × the average votes per seat

Official party status in the House of Commons needs 12 seats: Liberal 236 (status); Conservative 72 (status); Bloc 22 (status); NDP 11 (no status); Green 2 (no status). A majority is 172 of 343.

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →