Canada General election15 Oct 2029in 1,078 days Liberal majority over 99% No majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Canada
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Canada · Seats changing hands

74 seats change hands since 2025, Liberal up 67

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2025. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. Liberalfrom Conservative 65 seats
  2. NDPfrom Conservative 5 seats
  3. Blocfrom Conservative 1 seat
  4. Liberalfrom Bloc 1 seat
  5. Greenfrom Conservative 1 seat
  6. Liberalfrom NDP 1 seat

Every seat

  1. Chicoutimi—Le FjordQC Liberal from Conservative 48% chance
  2. Edmonton GatewayAB Liberal from Conservative 52% chance
  3. London—FanshaweON Liberal from Conservative 52% chance
  4. SheffordQC Liberal from Bloc 52% chance
  5. Kitchener CentreON Green from Conservative 53% chance
  6. Coast of Bays—Central—Notre DameNL Liberal from Conservative 53% chance
  7. Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-CharlesQC Liberal from Conservative 54% chance
  8. Edmonton WestAB Liberal from Conservative 55% chance
  9. Hastings—Lennox and Addington—TyendinagaON Liberal from Conservative 55% chance
  10. Kenora—KiiwetinoongON Liberal from Conservative 55% chance
  11. Montmorency—CharlevoixQC Bloc from Conservative 55% chance
  12. Windsor WestON Liberal from Conservative 56% chance
  13. Cowichan—Malahat—LangfordBC NDP from Conservative 56% chance
  14. Vancouver KingswayBC Liberal from NDP 57% chance
  15. Bruce—Grey—Owen SoundON Liberal from Conservative 58% chance
  16. North YorkON Liberal from Conservative 59% chance
  17. Perth—WellingtonON Liberal from Conservative 59% chance
  18. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillON Liberal from Conservative 60% chance
  19. North Island—Powell RiverBC NDP from Conservative 60% chance
  20. Huron—BruceON Liberal from Conservative 61% chance
  21. Brantford—Brant SouthON Liberal from Conservative 61% chance
  22. Long Range MountainsNL Liberal from Conservative 62% chance
  23. Richmond—Arthabaska—des-SourcesQC Liberal from Conservative 62% chance
  24. Edmonton GriesbachAB NDP from Conservative 66% chance
  25. Kapuskasing—Timmins—MushkegowukON Liberal from Conservative 67% chance
  26. Parry Sound—MuskokaON Liberal from Conservative 67% chance
  27. Middlesex—LondonON Liberal from Conservative 67% chance
  28. Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant NorthON Liberal from Conservative 68% chance
  29. Simcoe—GreyON Liberal from Conservative 70% chance
  30. Kamloops—Shuswap—Central RockiesBC Liberal from Conservative 70% chance
  31. Niagara WestON Liberal from Conservative 71% chance
  32. Richmond Hill SouthON Liberal from Conservative 73% chance
  33. Elgin—St. Thomas—London SouthON Liberal from Conservative 74% chance
  34. Kamloops—Thompson—NicolaBC Liberal from Conservative 75% chance
  35. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-MedonteON Liberal from Conservative 75% chance
  36. Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel BeltON Liberal from Conservative 75% chance
  37. Edmonton RiverbendAB Liberal from Conservative 77% chance
  38. Wellington—Halton Hills NorthON Liberal from Conservative 77% chance
  39. Calgary CentreAB Liberal from Conservative 78% chance
  40. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau LakesON Liberal from Conservative 79% chance
  41. Acadie—AnnapolisNS Liberal from Conservative 79% chance
  42. Nanaimo—LadysmithBC Liberal from Conservative 79% chance
  43. Miramichi—Grand LakeNB Liberal from Conservative 80% chance
  44. OshawaON Liberal from Conservative 80% chance
  45. Saskatoon SouthSK Liberal from Conservative 80% chance
  46. Lanark—FrontenacON Liberal from Conservative 80% chance
  47. Skeena—Bulkley ValleyBC NDP from Conservative 80% chance
  48. Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-LakeON Liberal from Conservative 82% chance
  49. The Eastern PeninsulasNL Liberal from Conservative 82% chance
  50. Abbotsford—South LangleyBC Liberal from Conservative 82% chance
  51. Calgary McKnightAB Liberal from Conservative 82% chance
  52. Bowmanville—Oshawa NorthON Liberal from Conservative 82% chance
  53. Markham—UnionvilleON Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  54. Simcoe NorthON Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  55. Langley Township—Fraser HeightsBC Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  56. Saskatoon EastSK Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  57. Niagara SouthON Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  58. Newmarket—AuroraON Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  59. Northumberland—ClarkeON Liberal from Conservative 83% chance
  60. Vernon—Lake Country—MonasheeBC Liberal from Conservative 84% chance
  61. Regina—LewvanSK Liberal from Conservative 85% chance
  62. Elmwood—TransconaMB NDP from Conservative 85% chance
  63. Regina—WascanaSK Liberal from Conservative 85% chance
  64. Hamilton East—Stoney CreekON Liberal from Conservative 85% chance
  65. Brampton WestON Liberal from Conservative 86% chance
  66. Okanagan Lake West—South KelownaBC Liberal from Conservative 86% chance
  67. CambridgeON Liberal from Conservative 86% chance
  68. Similkameen—South Okanagan—West KootenayBC Liberal from Conservative 86% chance
  69. Kitchener South—HespelerON Liberal from Conservative 87% chance
  70. Richmond Centre—MarpoleBC Liberal from Conservative 89% chance
  71. Windsor—Tecumseh—LakeshoreON Liberal from Conservative 90% chance
  72. Kildonan—St. PaulMB Liberal from Conservative 92% chance
  73. Pitt Meadows—Maple RidgeBC Liberal from Conservative 93% chance
  74. Cloverdale—Langley CityBC Liberal from Conservative 94% chance

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