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Move the polls → Every tool →Where the polls stood 2 years and 11 months before each of the last three general elections, and what happened next. 2021 came early, so it is taken at the same distance from the election before. The biggest move from this point: Liberal in 2019, −14.6 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
Conservative led by 0.6. Liberal won the vote instead, by 2.5.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 32.0 | 43.8 | +11.8 |
| Conservative | 32.6 | 41.3 | +8.7 |
| NDP | 19.6 | 6.3 | −13.3 |
| Bloc | 6.2 | 6.3 | +0.1 |
| Green | 4.3 | 1.2 | −3.1 |
| PPC | 4.3 | 0.7 | −3.6 |
Liberal led by 7.0. Conservative won the vote instead, by 1.1.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 36.0 | 32.6 | −3.4 |
| Conservative | 29.0 | 33.7 | +4.7 |
| NDP | 17.7 | 17.8 | +0.1 |
| Bloc | 6.1 | 7.6 | +1.5 |
| Green | 6.8 | 2.3 | −4.5 |
| PPC | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 |
Liberal led by 20.1. Conservative won the vote instead, by 1.2.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 47.7 | 33.1 | −14.6 |
| Conservative | 27.6 | 34.3 | +6.7 |
| NDP | 13.9 | 16.0 | +2.1 |
| Bloc | 4.5 | 7.6 | +3.1 |
| Green | 5.7 | 6.6 | +0.9 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2025 | As in 2021 | As in 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.7 | 58.5 | 43.3 | 32.1 |
| Conservative | 30.5 | 39.2 | 35.2 | 37.2 |
| NDP | 10.9 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| Bloc | 6.3 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 9.4 |
| Green | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 |
Conservative would overtake in one of the three. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election, Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election, Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
