Canada General election15 Oct 2029in 1,079 days Liberal majority over 99% No majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our Canada forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 27 OctTuesday
    • Liberal: 235 seats (−2)
    • Conservative: 73 seats (+1)
    • Bloc: 22 seats (+1)
    • Liberal: 47.3% of the vote (−0.8)
  2. 26 OctMonday
    • Liberal: 237 seats (−9)
    • Conservative: 72 seats (+7)
    • Bloc: 21 seats (+2)
    • Conservative: 31.5% of the vote (+1.0)
    • NDP: 9.8% of the vote (−1.0)
  3. 25 OctSunday
    • Liberal: 246 seats (+4)
    • Conservative: 65 seats (−2)
    • Bloc: 19 seats (−2)
    • Liberal: 48.4% of the vote (+0.5)
  4. 20 OctTuesday
    • Liberal: 242 seats (+5)
    • Conservative: 67 seats (−5)
  5. 18 OctSunday
    • Liberal: 237 seats (−4)
    • Conservative: 72 seats (+5)
    • NDP: 11 seats (−1)
    • Conservative: 30.8% of the vote (+0.6)
    • NDP: 10.9% of the vote (−1.0)
  6. 13 OctTuesday
    • Bloc: 21 seats (−1)
    • NDP: 12 seats (+1)
    • Bloc: 6.1% of the vote (−0.4)
    • NDP: 11.9% of the vote (+1.0)
  7. 7 OctWednesday
    • Liberal: 241 seats (+1)
    • Conservative: 67 seats (−1)
  8. 6 OctTuesday
    • Liberal: 240 seats (+5)
    • Conservative: 68 seats (−5)
    • Conservative: 31.0% of the vote (−0.7)
    • NDP: 10.9% of the vote (+1.1)
  9. 3 OctSaturday
    • Liberal: 235 seats (+7)
    • Conservative: 73 seats (−6)
    • Bloc: 22 seats (+1)
    • NDP: 11 seats (−2)
    • Liberal: 47.9% of the vote (+1.2)
    • Conservative: 31.7% of the vote (−1.1)
    • Bloc: 6.2% of the vote (+0.4)
    • NDP: 9.8% of the vote (−1.0)
  10. 29 SepTuesday
    • Liberal: 228 seats (−5)
    • Conservative: 79 seats (+3)
    • NDP: 13 seats (+2)
    • Liberal: 46.7% of the vote (−0.9)
    • Conservative: 32.8% of the vote (+0.5)
    • NDP: 10.8% of the vote (+0.9)
    • PPC: 1.3% of the vote (+0.5)
  11. 28 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 233 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 76 seats (−1)
    • CPC: 32.3% of the vote (−0.4)
  12. 23 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 232 seats (−2)
    • CPC: 77 seats (+2)
  13. 21 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 234 seats (+2)
    • CPC: 75 seats (−2)
  14. 18 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 232 seats (+3)
    • CPC: 77 seats (−2)
    • BQ: 21 seats (−1)
    • LPC: 47.4% of the vote (+0.4)
  15. 12 SepSaturday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 229 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 79 seats (+1)
    • NDP: 11 seats (−2)
    • NDP: 9.4% of the vote (−0.7)
  16. 11 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 228 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 78 seats (−1)
  17. 9 SepWednesday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 227 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 79 seats (−1)
    • CPC: 32.7% of the vote (−0.4)
  18. 7 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 226 seats (+4)
    • CPC: 80 seats (−1)
    • BQ: 22 seats (−3)
  19. 5 SepSaturday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 222 seats (−2)
    • CPC: 81 seats (+2)
    • CPC: 33.3% of the vote (+0.5)
  20. 4 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 224 seats (+7)
    • CPC: 79 seats (−6)
    • BQ: 25 seats (−1)
    • LPC: 46.4% of the vote (+0.9)
  21. 29 AugSaturday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 217 seats (−1)
    • CPC: 85 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 33.1% of the vote (+0.5)
    • GPC: 2.2% of the vote (−0.5)
    • PPC: 1.1% of the vote (−0.5)
  22. 28 AugFriday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 218 seats (−1)
    • CPC: 84 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 32.6% of the vote (+0.5)
  23. 27 AugThursday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 219 seats (−4)
    • CPC: 83 seats (+3)
    • BQ: 26 seats (+1)
    • CPC: 32.1% of the vote (+0.4)
  24. 26 AugWednesday · rebuilt
    • BQ: 25 seats (+2)
    • NDP: 13 seats (−2)
    • LPC: 45.6% of the vote (+0.5)
    • NDP: 10.5% of the vote (−0.5)
  25. 21 AugFriday · rebuilt
    • LPC: 223 seats (+4)
    • CPC: 80 seats (−5)
    • NDP: 15 seats (+1)
    • LPC: 45.0% of the vote (+0.4)
    • CPC: 31.3% of the vote (−0.5)